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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15507/1991-9468.26303.498-519

UDC 378:331.108.2

Imbalances between the Demand and Actual Numbers of Doctors and Candidates of Science

Sergey I. Pakhomov
Dr.Sci. (Chem.), Professor, Head of the Department for Supporting the Organization of State Scientific Certification, Russian Academy of Sciences (14 Leninskiy prospekt, Moscow 19991, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7855-5394, Scopus ID: 57196116928, Researcher ID: AAE-3841-2019, SPIN-code: 7398-2488, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Valery A. Gurtov
Dr.Sci. (Phis.-Math.), Professor, Director of the Center for Budget Monitoring, Petrozavodsk State University (33 Prospekt Lenina, Petrozavodsk 185910, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2442-7389, Scopus ID: 57196059838, Researcher ID: D-5286-2015, SPIN-code: 4180-0970, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Liudmila V. Shchegoleva
Dr.Sci. (Eng.), Associate Professor, Chief Researcher of the Center for Budget Monitoring, Petrozavodsk State University (33 Prospekt Lenina, Petrozavodsk 185910, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5539-9176, Scopus ID: 58172811500, Researcher ID: F-4064-2016, SPIN-code: 1079-9919, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Natalia V. Melekh
Cand.Sci. (Phis.-Math.), Senior Researcher of the Center for Budget Monitoring, Petrozavodsk State University (33 Prospekt Lenina, Petrozavodsk 185910, Russian Federation), ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1924-7228, Scopus ID: 56086242900, SPIN-code: 3911-9923, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract
Introduction. Calculating indicators of the annual additional demand for Candidates and Doctors of Science in the Russian economy requires detailed statistics, including the age distribution of highly qualified research staff, as well as their areas of employment in the economy. However, little information on the personnel structure of the core Russian scientific community is available in the scholarly literature and publicly available statistical sources. The aim of this study is to quantify the structure of highly qualified scientific personnel.
Materials and Methods. Calculations were made using data from statistical reporting forms of educational (HPE-1) and scientific (2-Science) organizations, as well as dissertation boards reports. The calculations were verified using data from the 2020 All-Russian Population Census. Economic and mathematical modeling methods were used for the calculations.
Results. A methodology for calculating indicators of the annual additional demand for highly qualified research staff by area of employment in the economy has been developed. The number of Candidates of Science (510,253) and Doctors of Science (74,014) in 2025 was calculated. Based on this calculation, indicators for the number of highly qualified research staff were formed in eight economic employment sectors and five scientific fields. Indicators of the annual additional demand for Candidates (15,803) and Doctors of Science (1,968) in 2025 were determined. The demand for highly qualified research staff is, on average, 1.7 times higher than their current actual numbers. The calculated quantitative values for the sectoral and age structure of highly qualified research staff revealed imbalances between the demand for highly qualified research staff and their actual numbers. These imbalances serve as a guideline for planning the activities of postgraduate programs and dissertation councils. Improving the performance of postgraduate programs in terms of the “admission to graduation with dissertation presented” indicator will help to better meet the economy's annual additional demand for highly qualified research staff.
Conclusion. Methodologies have been developed for calculating the total number of Candidates and Doctors of Science by annual age categories, differentiated by scientific field and by economic employment sector, as well as for calculating the annual additional demand for Candidates and Doctors of Science in economic sectors. These calculations have allowed us to supplement quantitative data on highly qualified research staff, which can be used to plan the activities of the postgraduate program and Dissertation Boards system.

Keywords: number of Candidates and Doctors of Science, age structure of highly qualified research staff, economic employment sectors, annual additional demand, postgraduate program and dissertation boards system

Conflict of interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

For citation: Pakhomov S.I., Gurtov V.A., Shchegoleva L.V., Melekh N.V. Imbalances between the Demand and Actual Numbers of Doctors and Candidates of Science. Integration of Education. 2026;30(3):498–519. https://doi.org/10.15507/1991-9468.26303.498-519

Authors’ contribution:
S. I. Pakhomov – formulation of overarching research goals and aims; oversight and leadership responsibility for the research activity planning and execution.
V. A. Gurtov – conducting a research and investigation process; verification research outputs.
L. V. Shchegoleva – application of statistical techniques to analyze study data; conducting a research and investigation process.
N. V. Melekh – conducting a research and investigation process; application of statistical techniques to analyze study data.

Availability of data and materials. The datasets used and/or analysed during the current study are available from the authors on reasonable request.

All authors have read and approved the final manuscript.

Submitted 13.03.2026;
revised 07.04.2026;
accepted 14.04.2026.

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